Thursday, September 19, 2024

Balochistan: Is Pakistan Breaking Apart?

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On August 25th Baloch Liberation Army(BLA) launched a surprise operation Herof targeting Pakistan army bases and personnel. According to BLA, the Pakistan army suffered up to 130 casualties. They also captured check posts for all the routes coming to Balochistan.

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BLA in their press release informed that they achieved all their objectives. There was a coordinated attack across all of Balochistan.

  1. Bela – Attack on Security Forces camp with 60+ SF personnel killed.

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2. Rarasham (Musakhel District) – 23 people were shot dead.

3. Railway bridge destroyed near Bolan Pass.

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4. Quetta – IED explosion targeting intelligence personnel.

5. Sibi – Explosions

6. Mastung – Explosions

7. Kalat – Attack on FC posts and security personnel killed.

8. Noshki – Two attacks on Pakistan military camps.

9. Turbat – Attack on Pakistan SFs.

10. Balichah – Explosions.

11. Jiwani – Attack on police stations.

Balochistan Separate Nation?

This operation Herof essentially cut off the Pakistan army from Balochistan from mainland Pakistan at least for a short time. After this attack of BLA killing Punjab-origin traveling in Baloch whether they be part of the Army or not will not be received well by an average Punjabi. This could escalate the tension to communal tensions pushing Pakistan into more chaos.

Pakistan has already experienced sectarian violence, and adding Baloch and Punjabi to it will only further push Baloch further away from Pakistan. The recent protest by the women of Baloch also shows the growing mistrust between the Pakistani establishment and the people of Baloch. The oppression of the Pakistani establishment against the protest has undoubtedly pushed the people to support the cause of BLA.

The international support for Balochistan as a separate nation is growing. And Taliban has also formed an agreement with BLA with this alliance, military actions will see a rise. This will only push Balochistan further from Pakistan and closer to having a separate nation.

BLA’s Foreign Support

BLA carried out strategic attacks all across Balochistan almost as if carried out by a regular army. This couldn’t have been possible without prior planning and intelligence gathering. All the previous attacks of BLA were not so strategic, but this particular one not only was strategic. It somehow was able to avoid the intelligence gathering of the ISI of Pakistan.

This could indicate that they may have received external support. The possible foreign hand could be the US as they would want to push the Chinese out of Gwadar. And their support for Marang Baloch through Amnesty International and Greta Thunberg, which are well-known CIA fronts. Shows the distrust or double game by the US against the Pakistani establishment.

The other possibility could be Israel as Pakistan has expressed its support for Iran against Israel. The recent reports that Pakistan would supply Iran with nuclear warheads if Israel attacked Iran could have pushed Israel to help BLA. If Israel was the one who helped the BLA, the US could have provided their support as well.

All in all Balochistan support is increasing and the attacks are only going to intensify. The Pakistan army will have to respond to this attack or risk losing face and ultimately Balochistan. It is yet to be seen what will the actions of the Pakistani establishment. There are also questions about trying to negotiate with BLA.

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