Monday, February 17, 2025

Nitish Kumar and ‘NDA Exit’ Rumor – Why a ‘Paltu Ram’ Move can Backfire?

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Nitish Kumar is no stranger to political somersaults, earning him the moniker “Paltu Ram.” However, recent rumors of his potential exit from the NDA to join the INDI Alliance have set tongues wagging in political circles.

A friendly photograph with Tejashwi Yadav, a pro-BJP Governor’s oath-taking ceremony, and a well-noted avoidance of BJP leaders during a Delhi visit have fueled speculation. If true, this move could reshape Bihar’s politics and test the resilience of Modi 3.0. But does Nitish Kumar hold enough sway to topple the NDA? Or would such a decision mark the beginning of his political decline? Let’s unlock!

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Nitish Kumar’s Exit Won’t Topple the NDA!

Nitish Kumar: आ गए Exit Poll के नतीजे, अब सीधा दिल्ली जा रहे नीतीश कुमार;  ये है प्लान - Nitish Kumar Going to delhi to meet nda leaders after exit  poll 2024
PC Jagran

Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) holds 12 Lok Sabha seats, a relatively modest number in the grand scheme of the NDA’s 295 strength. Even if he manages to bring 5-6 seats from LJP and RLM, the NDA remains solidly above the majority mark with BJP’s 240 seats alone. The sheer numerical strength of the BJP, coupled with its firm alliance with Shiv Sena, NCP (Ajit Pawar), TDP, and Janasena Party is undefeatable!

HM Amit Shah’s “CHANAKYA” prowess makes it nearly impossible for Nitish Kumar to destabilize the coalition at the national level.

Rumours Galore In Patna As Multiple Reports Claim Nitish Kumar Considering  Return To NDA Fold
PC Swarajya

Additionally, the BJP has been meticulously planning for contingencies. Leaders like Sushil Modi and Nityanand Rai have expanded the party’s base in Bihar. Thereby, ensuring that any vacuum left by Nitish Kumar and his party could be swiftly filled. Kumar’s exit, though disruptive in the short term, would likely galvanize the BJP to consolidate its voter base further.

The big gaining zones for BJP will be among communities disenchanted by Nitish Kumar’s frequent political U-turns.

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The INDI Alliance may feel that Nitish Kumar holds the key to NDA’s stability, but the reality is starkly different. His departure might create noise, but it won’t dent the foundation of a coalition designed to outlast individual leaders.

INDI Alliance: A Risky Bet for Nitish Kumar

Nitish Kumar is a veteran political leader. He is known to never choose a losing side! If Nitish Kumar chooses to align with the INDI Alliance, he will enter a coalition plagued by internal discord and a poor track record in elections. The INDI alliance is ready to revolt against the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress.

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Mamata’s TMC, Abdullah’s NC, and NCP(Sharad Pawar) have shown disenchantment from the alliance that only wins by riding on its partner’s back.

INDI Alliance, formed as an anti-Modi platform, is soon turning into an anti-Rahul Gandhi alliance.

They fail to show cohesion or present a united front on key issues. Example – AAP and INC in the upcoming Delhi Elections! In state assembly elections of Haryana and Maharashtra, the alliance has repeatedly faltered, unable to translate opposition rhetoric into electoral success.

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar faces a significant challenge in coexisting with Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD.

The two parties, though allies in the past, compete for the same voter base. The Yadavs and OBC votes are usually split between RLD and JD(U). If they fight together, they shall be unable to make a dent in BJP Bihar’s votes. Moreover, internal competition between the two parties could weaken the INDI Alliance in one of India’s most politically crucial states.

Moreover, aligning with an alliance built on opportunism rather than ideological alignment risks further eroding Kumar’s credibility.

Voters have grown weary of his frequent shifts in allegiance. Thus, joining a shaky coalition could alienate even his most loyal supporters. The move could also undermine his standing as a seasoned statesman, reducing him to just another player in the opposition’s fragmented camp.

Bihar in Chaos: The Real Story Behind the Speculation

Bihar’s political climate is rife with unrest, from large-scale student protests over examination delays and unemployment to governance failures in addressing basic issues like law and order. This chaos has fueled speculation about Nitish Kumar’s political future, especially given his perceived inability to address these challenges effectively.

The spark for the recent “NDA Exit” rumors came from a photograph of Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav at the oath-taking ceremony of Bihar’s new Governor.

Arif Mohammed Khan, a leader with pro-BJP leanings, became the governor of Bihar. The image of Tejaswini Yadav and Nitish Kumar greeting each other cordially was widely circulated. Thereafter, Lalu Prasad spoke of an open door policy for Nitish Kumar in INDI Alliance.

Then surfaced rumors about Nitish Kumar’s subsequent visit to Delhi, where he conspicuously did not meet J.P. Nadda added fuel to the fire. However, these events could be more about optics than intent, as Kumar may be trying to pressure the BJP into addressing state-level grievances or increasing his party’s leverage within the NDA.

The chaos in Bihar, coupled with the unchecked spread of misinformation through social media, has further complicated the narrative of “Exit”. Nitish Kumar’s decisions in this turbulent time will have far-reaching implications, not just for his political career but also for Bihar’s future.

Modi 3.0 and Bihar’s Political Future

How 'Susashan Babu', 'Palturam' Nitish Kumar may influence the Modi 3.0  govt - The Economic Times
PC The Economic Times

For Modi 3.0, Nitish Kumar’s exit would be a minor hiccup rather than a major crisis. The BJP’s majority in the Lok Sabha ensures that the government’s stability remains intact. Furthermore, the party’s growing grassroots presence in Bihar positions it as a strong contender to replace Nitish Kumar as the state’s political anchor.

Bihar’s political landscape is already shifting, with the BJP making inroads into communities traditionally aligned with the JD(U) and RJD.

No photo description available.
PC abpLive

Nitish Kumar’s frequent shifts in alliances confuse the voters. Hence, any change of heart shall create an opportunity for the BJP to present itself as a stable and reliable alternative. Contrarily, Nitish Kumar risks political isolation if he breaks away from the NDA. The JD(U)’s attempt at creative opportunism could leave the party vulnerable in both state and national politics. By staying with the NDA, Nitish Kumar becomes the “Kingmaker”. Thereby, enabling him to leverage the BJP’s development agenda to address Bihar’s challenges and secure his legacy as a statesman.

A Fool’s Gamble or A Foolproof Rumor 

Rumors of Nitish Kumar’s exit from the NDA seem like a Fool’s Gambit. At best, it is a creation of a highly imaginative mind. And at worst, it is a test round fired to check the mood of the public! An ‘NDA Exit’ to join the INDI Alliance might seem like a bold move, but it is fraught with risks. The BJP-led NDA remains strong, and Modi 3.0 is well-equipped to navigate such political turbulence.

नीतीश सबके हैं..' इस पोस्टर का मतलब तो समझिए
PC ETV Bharat

However, for Nitish Kumar, aligning with the INDI Alliance will spell a Fool’s Gamble.

It might end his political relevance at the state and national level. Thus, staying with the NDA offers stability and a chance to rebuild Kumar’s standing. The chaos in Bihar and Kumar’s inability to manage it effectively could worsen if he chooses to switch sides.

In the game of political survival, Nitish Kumar is a shrewd player who never takes a loosing bargain.

Most analysts reject the rumored Exit as a fool’s gamble that spells disaster for all! The stakes for any ‘NDA Exit’ are high, as the odds seem firmly stacked against Nitish Kumar if he decides to break away. However, the true nature of the game of politics is very fickle! Let’s wait and watch if the rumor of ‘NDA Exi’t makes an exit itself or becomes a reality!

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