The BJP recently lost its majority in the Rajya Sabha. The ruling alliance NDA stands at 101 with BJP dropping to a 10-year low of 86 seats. This loss of majority in the Upper House will impact the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and its legislative agenda. Let’s analyze its implications for BJP and Bharat.
BJP in Rajya Sabha: Current Standing and Future Prospects
The BJP’s tally in the Rajya Sabha has dipped to 86 seats. Its alliance partners are able to club only 101 seats. The majority mark for Rajya Sabha is 113 out of the 243 total seats. However, despite this setback, the BJP and its allies are optimistic about upcoming by-elections. The BJP anticipates winning two seats each in Bihar, Maharashtra, and Assam. Additionally, they hope to gain one seat each in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Tripura. All these states have NDA state governments and are traditional strongholds of the BJP.
Additionally, the BJP expects support from the four newly nominated members. These members are independent of the political alliance but traditionally they back the government that appoints them. However, the BJP’s immediate goal of regaining a majority is challenged by the current composition of the Rajya Sabha. The Congress-led INDI Alliance has 87 seats. This large number includes significant contributions from the 13 seats of TMC, with AAP and DMK contributing 10 seats each.
Rajya Sabha: Strategies and Challenges
The BJP’s loss of a clear majority in Rajya Sabha complicates its ability to pass legislation smoothly.
The party must now rely on support from unaligned parties such as the YSRCP, the one it defeated in Andhra Pradesh, and the AIADMK, a former BJP ally in Tamil Nadu. Both of these have 11 and 4 seats respectively. Historically, the YSRCP has supported the BJP on several bills in the past but BJP’s alliance with TDP may change the dynamics of this political relationship.
The BJD holds 9 seats in the Rajya Sabha. It was often called the informal ally of the BJP. On a number of occasions, they have supported the NDA on legislative policies in the past 10 years. However, after the loss in the state assembly election in 2024, BJD has publicly denounced support to the BJP. The party members hope to be the voice of a strong and responsible opposition. Thus, it seems that BJD will at most selectively support the BJP in the Upper House.
Therefore, the BJP’s strategy will be to focus on securing crucial alliances within the NDA. It will also leverage its numerical advantage in the upcoming by-elections to regain the majority in Rajya Sabha. The BJP, as the ruling party, is confident in its ability to recoup losses, especially in states where it holds significant power.
Loss Of Majority And Impact on Policies
The BJP’s diminished strength in the Rajya Sabha will undoubtedly affect its legislative agenda. Key policies and reforms that the party has been pushing may now face delays or require significant negotiation and compromise.
Economic Reforms:
The BJP has been pushing for comprehensive economic reforms aimed at boosting growth, increasing investment, and improving the ease of doing business. Key reforms include changes to labor laws, land acquisition policies, and financial regulations. With a reduced majority in the Rajya Sabha, the BJP will need to secure support from unaligned external parties to pass any economic reform.
Potential outcomes on economic policies will be as follows:
- Delayed Reforms: The need for external support could slow the pace of implementing these reforms. Negotiations may lead to watered-down versions of the original proposals, potentially reducing their effectiveness.
- Fiscal Policies and Budget Approvals: Debates on the annual budget and other fiscal policies could become more challenging. The BJP will need to ensure that its budget proposals are acceptable to a broader coalition of parties and are palatable to the opposition as well. The upcoming Budget 2024 will face the maximum brunt of this loss of majority!
- Compromises on Spending: The BJP may need to make concessions on spending priorities. This could delay planned investments in infrastructure, social welfare programs, and other key areas.
- Volatile Investment Climate: Political stability is crucial for maintaining investor confidence. The BJP’s reduced majority in the Rajya Sabha could create uncertainties about the continuity and stability of economic policies.
Social Policies:
Social policies related to education, healthcare, and welfare schemes might also see slower progress. The BJP will need to ensure that its initiatives are acceptable to a hostile opposition and its vote bank before tabling a bill in the Rajya Sabha. This will lead to diluted policies or ineffective decisions. Additionally, it will also slow down the implementation process.
Potential outcomes on economic policies will be as follows:
- Education Reforms in Jeopardy: The NEP-2020 that aims to revolutionize India’s educational system will be rendered toothless. Thus, this holistic, student-centric NEP will face unnecessary amendments and funding delays. Thereby causing a delay in implementing curriculum changes, teacher training programs, and infrastructure improvements.
- Healthcare Initiatives Facing Hurdles: Schemes, like Ayushman Bharat, aim to provide health coverage to over 500 million Indians. However, ensuring access to quality healthcare for all requires continuous funding. Here, the BJP might find it difficult to fund or pass legislative measures to expand and sustain the scheme.
- Welfare Programs and Social Safety Nets: Measures like Direct Benefit Transfers, etc. aim to ensure that subsidies and benefits reach the common man directly. It reduces corruption or mishandling of funds. A legislative gridlock in the Rajya Sabha could stall the passage of bills necessary to enhance DBT schemes. Therefore, many schemes will face a disrupted flow of funds, leaving the vulnerable in a state of helplessness.
- Minority Rights and Social Justice Measures: Efforts to modernize certain hardline minorities will come to a grinding halt. Social justice through thought policies requires robust legislative backing. Thus, the BJP will need to negotiate extensively with opposition parties to pass such measures. Here, the NDA may end up helping the Opposition in their appeasement politics rather than enriching the social fabric of Bharat with a progressive appraoch.
Defence Procurement and Modernization
The BJP is pushing for the modernization of India’s armed forces. Thus, it balances significant investments in defense procurement and the indigenization of military technology. A reduced majority in the Rajya Sabha complicates the approval of large-scale defense budgets and procurement plans.
Potential outcomes on defense policies will be as follows:
- Delayed Procurement: The approval process for new defense acquisitions may face severe criticism and delyas due to an immature opposition voice in the Parliament. This could slow down the modernization of India’s military capabilities.
- National Security Legislation: Passing legislation related to national security will become tougher. Amendments to counter-terrorism laws, cyber security regulations, and border management policies may face greater undue scrutiny or opposition just to satisfy “Balak Buddi” and his ego!
- Risk of Stalemate: Many defense policies may face stagnation, if consensus cannot be reached. Thereby, causing delay or deformation of critical security legislation. Consequently, potentially hampering Bharat’s ability to respond to emerging threats effectively.
- Defense Diplomacy: Bharat’s strategic alliances and defense partnerships play a crucial role in its national security. The BJP’s reduced majority in Rajya Sabha could impact its ability to swiftly implement agreements and partnerships with foreign nations.
- Regional Security Dynamics: India’s strategic posture in the sub-continent, particularly concerning China and Pakistan, requires a unified and decisive government approach. However, the track record of the INDI-Alliance shows that they prefer petty politics over responsible opposition. Therefore, decisions regarding Bharat’s regional security may face delays or challenges.
What To Expect?!
The NDA’s loss of majority in the Rajya Sabha, even if temporary, puts Bharat’s progress on the chopping block! The Lok Sabha results, continuous misinformation, and effective caste division have significantly shifted the nation’s political landscape. Thus, Modi 3.0 shall only focus on appeasement politics. No new amendments or bills shall be tabled until the NDA reaches majority mark in the Rajya Sabha.
Therefore, while the BJP hopes to gain through by-elections and strategic alliances, the immediate impact on its legislative capabilities will be evident with the Union Budget on 23rd July 2024.
It seems that the BJP will be held hostage for the next few years in both houses. And unless the Rajya Sabha blooms in Kamal, development and progress will take a backseat. For the people of Bharat, this could mean more shouting matches in Parliament and fewer debates and balanced policies. The BJP’s ability to implement its agenda will depend heavily on its success in building and maintaining strategic alliances in the Rajya Sabha. So Bharat, let’s pray for a resolution to this “majority” conundrum in the Upper House!