July 15, 2026 — Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reached a boiling point following explosive statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, who declared that the United States is effectively “taking over” and will “run” the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking in a phone interview on Fox News, Trump boldly claimed, “We’re going to keep the Strait, and we’ll probably run it,” adding that the U.S. would become the “guardian of the Strait”. The aggressive rhetoric comes amidst the heaviest drone and missile exchanges between the U.S. and Iran since an interim Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) collapsed earlier this month.
Here is an in-depth breakdown and fact-check of the fast-evolving situation, the military realities on the ground, and the abrupt policy shifts coming out of the White House.
The Core Context: Renewed Hostilities and Blockades
The current crisis erupted after Trump declared that a brief June 17 ceasefire agreement with Iran was “over,” accusing Tehran of backing out of negotiated terms. Over the weekend, the U.S. military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) launched consecutive waves of heavy airstrikes targeting Iranian coastal assets, naval forces, and underground facility manufacturing sites—specifically aiming to degrade Tehran’s capability to target commercial shipping.
Iran responded over the weekend by claiming it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, targeting international supertankers transiting the region. Trump immediately rejected Iran’s closure claims, asserting that the waterway “is OPEN, and will remain OPEN,” while ordering the U.S. Navy to reimpose a strict maritime blockade against Iranian vessels and ports.
The Fact Check: Policy U-Turns, Feasibility, and Law
Trump’s sudden push for the U.S. to “run” the waterway has thrown international shipping lanes into confusion, sparking intense debate over international law and sudden White House policy pivots.
1. The 20% “Guardian Angel” Toll Threat and Abrupt Backtrack
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The Claim: On Monday, Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. would officially call itself the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait”. He asserted that, as a matter of fairness, the U.S. would demand a 20% reimbursement fee (toll) on all commercial cargo transiting the strait to cover the U.S. Navy’s protection costs.
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The Fact Check: This proposal lasted less than 24 hours. The plan immediately faced fierce resistance from Gulf allies and oil markets, with experts noting a 20% tariff on cargo value could amount to an astronomical $30 million per transit for a single large oil tanker. By Tuesday, Trump abruptly abandoned the toll idea, posting that following “highly productive conversations” with Middle Eastern leaders, he would replace the fee with upcoming trade and investment deals into the U.S. from Gulf states.
2. Can Any Nation Legally “Run” or Toll the Strait?
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The Claim: The Trump administration initially indicated it had the right to charge for maritime transit security.
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The Fact Check: No. Under international maritime law—specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)—the Strait of Hormuz is categorized as an international strait subject to the right of “transit passage.” The International Maritime Organization (IMO) stands firmly against mandatory transit fees, stating there is zero legal basis to introduce tolls for transiting an international strait. Furthermore, the U.S. State Department has historically spent decades strongly opposing Iran’s own attempts to levy tolls or restrict passage in the waterway.
3. Has the Iranian Navy Been Completely Destroyed?
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The Claim: During his remarks, Trump asserted that Iran was getting its “ass kicked,” claiming their navy, air force, and missile capabilities were virtually wiped out and multiple leaders killed.
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The Fact Check: While U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have heavily degraded Iranian coastal batteries and command infrastructure over the past week, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to operate hidden asymmetric drone fleets, fast-attack boats, and anti-ship missile stockpiles. Following Trump’s speech, the IRGC defiantly posted on X that it would “continue to exercise sovereignty over and management of the Strait of Hormuz,” and separate strikes successfully hit commercial tankers off the coast of Oman, demonstrating they still possess disruptive capabilities.
Geopolitical Fallout and the Energy Market
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, carrying roughly one-fifth (20%) of global oil production.
[ Persian Gulf ] --> [ Strait of Hormuz ] --> [ Gulf of Oman / Global Market ]
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(Major Middle East Outflow) (20% of Global Oil Chokepoint)
The intense rhetoric and active military exchanges initially sent crude oil prices surging towards $85 per barrel. While Trump’s quick retraction of the 20% cargo fee marginally cooled off the immediate session highs, oil markets remain highly volatile. Shipping companies are dealing with “severe” threat warnings, with many vessels turning off their transponders or attempting alternative southern shipping corridors along Oman’s coast to avoid the crossfire.
What Happens Next?
The Trump administration has formally notified Congress that active hostilities against Iran have resumed. This triggers a fresh 60-day window under the War Powers Resolution allowing the White House to conduct military operations in the region without immediate congressional authorization.
While the U.S. Navy has successfully kept the physical lanes from being completely locked down, the administration’s fluctuating policy—shifting from enforcing international law, to threatening illegal unilateral tolls, to leveraging investment deals—has left international allies scrambling to figure out what U.S. “guardianship” of global shipping will look like in the weeks ahead.