The Wagner group’s mutiny in Russia will have multifarious implications
The Wagner mutiny has left the world shell shocked.
The world is fathoming and trying to coming to terms as to what exactly transpired in Putin’s Russia.
It is, therefore, necessary to study the implications of this fateful event. To begin with, it is clear that the mutiny has shaken the strong man image of Vladimir V Putin.
The new ‘Czar’ of Russia whose unstated, yet, clear intention was to revive the Imperial ‘Rus’ image of Russia lies in tatters now.
His infallibility appears to be a mere façade. That façade appears to have diminished, if not out-rightly torn down.
Other implications are-
Future of the Ukraine War
Perhaps, the greatest interests in the foreign policy and academic circles globally is this- what will this mutiny’s outcome on the Ukrainian battlefield.
To be blunt, Russia’s ‘special military operation’ which began 16 months ago has been a Himalayan blunder.
Far from toppling the ‘Neo-Nazi’ regime of Volodymr Zelensky and capturing Kiev, Putin has found it hard to capture central and western parts of the country.
Russian troops have faced heavy casualties in recent months.
They have sent in waves after waves of Russian attacks which have either been repulsed or have come at a great cost.
The victory over the southern city of Bakhmut, too, was won thanks to the relentless efforts of Wagner group. Policymakers, globally, are now keeping a close eye.
They want to see as to what the mutiny’s impact will have on the broader Russian preparedness.
Security of Russian Nuclear Arsenal
While this, may be an apprehension that appears overblown, yet the lingering concerns do remain.
Communist Soviet Union’s demise in 1991 did raise problems of what would happen to Russia’s bourgeoning nuclear arsenal.
The same concern remains here. The thing is that if Putin’s leadership appears shaky, then there could be a possibility of a future coup d’etat which may even topple the new ‘Czar’.
Political instability is a recipe for chaos.
It can happen that chronic political instability in Russia may trigger internal disintegration.
This may raise the issue of nuclear weapons whether tactical or strategic falling in the hands of terror groups, particularly Islamic who may, God forbid, use it for their nefarious purposes for ‘nuclear Jihad’.
Plus, a nuclear meltdown at the Zaporhizhia nuclear power station due to bellicose actions of both sides remain a distinct possibility.
This can happen either within or after the conclusion of the war.
Nature of PMCs after Wagner Mutiny
The mutiny has shone light on the Private Military Companies and their covert activities.
This can lead to the formation of future PMCs in countries with flourishing defense ecosystems like South Korea, Japan and now in India.
In India, it could be a distinct possibility, due to strong and ambitious rank and file of the officer base of our armed forces.
As the government’s defense budgets experience a northward trajectory, more and more officers may be tempted to form such companies.
Future governments, on the other hand, may find it convenient to delegate more such functions of defending ‘national interests’ in other countries in the form of such military interventions, should any arise.
Conclusion
The Wagner group’s mutiny will linger for a long time in the ordinary Russian psyche.
Nevertheless, the mandarins of foreign policy globally in general, and India in particular, take a note of this and take countermeasures accordingly.