As talks grow louder about regime change in Iran, many in the West have pinned their hopes on Reza Pahlavi, son of the ousted Shah. The narrative? That democracy will bloom, Iran will be free, and the people will choose their destiny.
But for India, this potential shift in Tehran may not be the good news Washington would have us believe. In fact, it may undo decades of carefully built strategic depth and autonomy in the region.
Shah-Era Iran Was No Friend of India
Let us not forget history. The Shah of Iran — Reza Pahlavi’s father, “Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi”, was a staunch US ally who openly supported Pakistan during both the 1965 and 1971 wars against India. Iran supplied weapons to Pakistan and never stood with India on key regional issues.
If Reza Pahlavi comes to power, we’re likely looking at a return to that old foreign policy orientation, subservient to American interests, dismissive of India’s sensitivities.
Democracy? Ask Bangladesh. Ask Ukraine.
Reza Pahlavi may speak of democratic revival, but we’ve heard this script before. Muhammad Yunus, a US proxy in Bangladesh, also came with democratic pretensions. What followed? Opposition crackdown, a silenced media, and a tightly controlled narrative.
In Ukraine, President Zelensky, a US Proxy, has suspended elections and banned viable opponents. In Bangladesh, elections are a sham where all real rivals are conveniently disqualified. So why would Iran under a US-installed regime be any different?
Believing in the lie of American-sponsored democracy is not hope, it’s foolishness. What comes with US-backed change is never freedom. It is foreign control, asset sell-offs, and regional instability.
Oil, Sanctions, and Strategic Loss
Iran is not just another country in West Asia. For India, it is:
- A key backup oil supplier
- A geopolitical counterbalance
- A crucial node in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)
Currently, India buys discounted oil from Russia, but it used to also buy from Iran before US sanctions tightened. If Reza comes to power, the US will likely push for Western corporations to control Iran’s oil fields. The result? Iran becomes a price-taker, not a sovereign seller.
That hurts India’s bargaining power. It removes a vital option from our energy strategy. With Iran in American hands, we will have to bend to US oil pricing politics once again.
A Danger to INSTC and IMEC
Reza’s rise also threatens India’s regional projects. With Iran acting as the heart of the INSTC and a key to the IMEC corridor, any regime dancing to Washington’s tune will likely be pressured to sabotage India’s connectivity dreams.
And don’t forget geography: Iran’s coast lies close to the UAE, a hub in the IMEC. A destabilised Iran, manipulated by Western agendas, could easily derail this entire plan.
US Fears India’s Rise
Let us be clear. The US is not India’s friend.
It is a global hegemon that sees India as a future threat to its unipolar dominance. Today, China is their priority. Tomorrow, it will be India.
A US-controlled Iran is not just a setback — it’s a strategic threat. It will be used to contain us, manipulate oil markets, weaken Russia-India trade routes, and destabilise the region.
Cultural Erosion: End of Zoroastrian Revival?
One final tragedy? The Zoroastrian revival.
With the Mullah regime gone, Iran had a chance to reclaim its pre-Islamic spiritual roots, including Zoroastrianism, a cousin of Hinduism. But if America comes in, expect a surge in Christian missionary activity, not revival.
Reza Pahlavi, while not explicitly calling for conversions, has shown no indication of protecting Iran’s spiritual heritage. And every country under US control — from Buddhism in South Korea to Yezidis in Iraq- has seen a collapse of native traditions.
What India Needs
No, the Mullah regime isn’t ideal. We don’t need extremists who obsess over Israel-hatred and regional chaos.
But a balanced regime, friendly to India and friendly or neutral toward Israel, not under US control, and focused on Iranian welfare, is the best case.
Let Israel pursue its goals. India and Israel may be close allies, but this is a case where national interests diverge slightly. Mature nations know how to manage such moments without weakening bonds.
Final Word
Reza Pahlavi’s rise may please Washington and Tel Aviv, but it should deeply concern New Delhi.
If India values its autonomy, energy security, and regional projects like INSTC, it must watch Iran’s future closely. Not every regime change is welcome. Some are Trojan Horses.
Let’s not open the gates blindly.