The recent overtures by Russia to rejuvenate the Russia-India-China (RIC) troika sparked intrigue and skepticism in equal measure. While Moscow touts the RIC as a cornerstone for a multipolar world, the persistent Sino-Indian border tensions cast a long shadow over its feasibility. Let’s unpack the origins, challenges, and implications of the RIC while examining whether it’s a genuine strategic initiative or a geopolitical maneuver by Putin.
Origins and Aspirations of the RIC Framework
The RIC concept emerged in 1996 as a brainchild of Yevgeny Primakov. Moscow envisioned it as a platform for fostering mutual trust and cooperation among three major Eurasian powers. Additionally, it was a way to counter the rising influence of USA in Asia! The first formal meeting occurred in 2002. Subsequent engagements aimed to address regional security, economic collaboration, and global governance.
The RIC was seen as a mechanism to counterbalance Western dominance and promote a multipolar international order.
However, the expansion of RIC to BRICS, incorporating Brazil and South Africa, diluted the RIC’s distinctiveness. While BRICS gained prominence, the RIC meetings became sporadic, reflecting underlying geopolitical frictions, particularly between India and China.
Persistent Sino-Indian Border Disputes Undermine Cohesion
The RIC’s efficacy is hampered by unresolved territorial disputes between India and China. The face-to-face clash was in 2020 at the Galwan Valley was a flash point of conflict. The incident marked a significant deterioration in bilateral relations. Subsequently the RIC Toika was forzen. Since then, incidents such as the 2022 Yangtse clash in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh have further exacerbated tensions. China’s unilateral actions, including the renaming of places in Arunachal Pradesh and the establishment of new administrative units in Aksai Chin or northern Ladakh.
These Chinese pipe dreams challenge the status quo and Bharat’s patience while violating previous agreements aimed at maintaining border peace.
The presence of the Dalai Lama in India is a thorn in China’s eyes. While India views the Chinese Necklace of Pearls as an attempt to contain India’s influence in the Global South! China continues to arm India’s hostile neighbor Pakistan with weapons and loans. The military aid and information war unleashed by China for its pet Pakistan during Operaiton Sindoor is deeply condemned by Bharat. Hence, all these developments together underscore the deep-seated mistrust between the two nations. Thus, rendering the RIC framework ineffective as a platform for genuine trilateral cooperation.
Russia ‘s Strategic Calculations and the RIC Revival
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov‘s advocacy for reviving the RIC format appears to be driven by Moscow’s inner desire. Seemingly, Russia wants to assert its relevance in Asian geopolitics amidst growing Western isolation.
By positioning itself as a mediator between India-China as well as India-Pakistan, Russia aims to bolster its diplomatic clout and economic interests in the region.
However, India’s strategic priorities, including its participation in the Quad alliance and deepening ties with Western nations, may not align with Russia’s vision for the RIC. Moreover, China’s assertive posturing along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) undermines the trust necessary for trilateral collaboration.
Implications for India’s Strategic Autonomy
India must approach the RIC revival with caution, ensuring that its national interests are not compromised. While engaging in multilateral forums can offer diplomatic leverage, India should not allow the RIC to dilute its stance.
Bharat’s territorial sovereignty and border security cannot be put at risk at any cost!
New Delhi’s focus should remain on strengthening its defense capabilities, enhancing strategic partnerships, and asserting its position on the global stage. Any engagement with the RIC should be predicated on tangible progress in resolving border disputes with China. RIC needs to ensure mutual respect among the participating nations for any form of success.
The proposed revival of the RIC framework by Russia appears more as a geopolitical maneuver than a viable strategic initiative.
Given the persistent Sino-Indian border tensions and divergent national interests, the RIC’s potential as a platform for meaningful trilateral cooperation remains limited. India must prioritize its strategic autonomy and national security while navigating the complex dynamics of regional and global geopolitics.